We were in Manhattan this afternoon and it started to snow pretty heavily for a short while - first snow for this winter! The snowflakes were really big fat ones and I was wearing a black Calvin and Klein wool and cashmere blend coat so it looked like I had been attacked by some strange white spotted fungus. There was no real accumulation on the ground though - still a bit warm for that.

An El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence US weather from now through to February, according to the 2009 winter outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. What struck me as particularly funny is what they had to say for the Northeast (where NYC is) :

Northeast : Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation.

Wut? Just a wee bit non-committal isn't it? I mean what else can it be besides above, near, or below normal temperatures and precipitation? Fortunately they went on to clarify this somewhat :

Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance.

Still, why not just say so right from the word go, instead of this "above, near, or below normal" bollox - it's a little bit redundant, don't ya think? I've seen better from the National Weather Service though (or worse, depending how you look at it) :

Unusually hot weather has entered the region for December as the Earth has left its orbit and is hurtling towards the sun. Unusually hot weather will occur for at least the next several days as the Earth draws ever nearer to the sun. Therefore, an excessive heat watch has been posted.

Apparently a trainee at the National Weather Service wrote the above as a test message, but it somehow managed to get published as an urgent weather advisory warning!