currently 10:41pm Monday 5th January, 2009 (NYC, New York)
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scientists warn of massive tidal wave from canary island volcano
Tuesday 23 September, 2003 at 2:06PM (Nereus) :: permalink :: comments (31) Something I heard in my travels.. I'll quote most of this word for word as posted at rense.com ..pretty daunting thing to have hanging over your head. Better get me a big gun (surfboard). Here's the story:
A wave higher than Nelson's Column and traveling faster than a jet aircraft will devastate the eastern seaboard of America and inundate much of southern Britain, say scientists who have analyzed the effects of a future volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands. A massive slab of rock twice the volume of the Isle of Man would break away from the island of La Palma and smash into the Atlantic Ocean to cause a tsunami - a monster wave - bigger than any recorded, the scientists warned yesterday. Most of the wave's energy, equivalent to the combined output of America's power stations for six months, would travel westwards to the American coast but enough would be flicked north towards the English Channel to cause catastrophic coastal damage. A computer model has been designed to show the way the tsunami will build after the volcano, called Cumbre Vieja, erupts on La Palma, at the western end of the Spanish island chain. It describes the almost unimaginable scale of an event that the scientists say could happen at any time within the foreseeable future. "We're looking at an event that could be decades or a century away - but there will be a degree of warning beforehand," said Simon Day, of the Benfield Greg Hazard Research Center at University College London. Most of the rocky western flank of Cumbre Vieja is unstable enough to be dislodged in the next big eruption of the volcano, which is active enough to explode at least once or twice a century. Its last big event was in 1949. Such a landslide from a future eruption could travel up to 60 kilometers (37 miles) from La Palma's coast, causing the formation and then collapse of a dome of water 900 meters (3,000ft) high and tens of kilometers wide. The bow of this collapsing dome of water would become a giant wave, but also, as the landslide continued to move underwater, a series of crests and troughs would soon generate the "wave train" of the tsunami. With the leading wave in front and crests pushing it on behind, it would sustain the power for the nine-hour journey to the American east coast. Tsunami means harbour wave in Japanese and, though the occurrence has nothing to do with the tides, it is often called a tidal wave in English. Throughout history they have caused widespread devastation, with Britain last being affected by one in 1755 when an earthquake in Lisbon caused an unusually large wave to hit southern ports. The computer model, compiled in collaboration with Steven Ward of the University of California, Santa Cruz, predicts that the tsunami will have a height of 100 metres (330ft) from crest to trough when it crashes into the shores of nearby north-west Africa. By the time it reached its final destination - the east coast of Florida and the Caribbean islands - the tsunami would still be up to 50 metres high. Low-lying land in Florida would be vulnerable to a sea wave that would inundate the mainland for several kilometres inland. Everything in its path would be flattened, the computer model predicted. Even though the wave would be much smaller when it reached Britain, it would still breach sea defenses because it would be larger than the biggest storm waves for which they were designed, Dr Day said. "For low-lying land along the south coast it could penetrate up to a mile," he said. Although there is little doubt that the landslide on La Palma will happen after a volcanic eruption, the difficulty is knowing exactly when it will occur. "Eruptions of Cumbre Vieja occur at intervals of decades to a century or so and there may be a number of eruptions before its collapse," Dr Day said. "Although the year-to-year probability of a collapse is therefore low, the resulting tsunami would be a major disaster with indirect effects around the world." The scientists are calling for better warning instruments to be placed on La Palma so that an impending eruption can be detected quickly enough to alert other areas that might be affected by a tsunami. "Cumbre Vieja needs to be monitored closely for any signs of impending volcanic activity and for the deformation that would precede collapse. The collapse will occur during some future eruption after days or weeks of precursory deformation and earthquakes," Dr Day predicted. "An effective earthquake monitoring system could provide advanced warning of a likely collapse and allow early emergency management organizations a valuable window of time in which to plan and respond," he said. ..update January 2008.. Some of the documents referenced in the comments section I have made a backup of, as I notice a few of the links are dead already. Here are those backups:
Thank you to Anna McGuire (benfieldhrc.org) for making the docs available after the links had gone dead. comments (31)
Shaun This was on Sky News last year (2003), and they said that the scientists will give considerable warning before it takes place. Which could be anything from 1-100 years. It would be impossible to stop it from happening, they're saying it's a huge slab of rock TWICE the size of the Isle Of Man (they're is nothing that can be done to stop something like this). The last major eruption was in 1949, and the Volcano is still active. Usually volcano's like this have a major eruption every 50-100 years. So the next eruption would probably be in this timescale, 1999-2049. Which means it will probably take place with in the next 45 years, just wait for the results on its volcanic activity. laura nelson i would like to know more of the geologic info such as the type of tectonic plate sliding , if it is the type involving great amounts of sea water being trapped as the plates slide over each other, then when it does go...it could be as big as Krakota. Which is still after all this time the loudest detonation the earth has ever known. Marc We aren't talking about a tectonic plate here, we're talking about a fault in the side of the volcano. The Cumbre Vieja is a young volcano, it's around 125,000 year old. It's also very, very steep, with some of the slopes being around 30 degrees. Add the fact that all volcanos are essentially badly designed piles of rock, riddled with different layers of rock that allow the buildup of water as well, and you have something that is inherently unstable. Add the fact that volcanoes are prone to earthquakes due to the movement of magma beneath them, and, well, not good. Marc The reason why it's come up again is because there's been an appeal from the Benfield Hazard Research Centre - the guys who have been keeping an eye on the Cumbre Vieja - for more cash. The problem is that the Spanish Government, for unknown reasons, has stopped funding for surveillance. At the moment there are only three siesmographs on the site and they are around 4-5 years old. The BHRC is calling for GPS systems to monitor the fracture to track its movements, along with satellite imagery to see if some parts are moving faster than others. The kind of funding they require is about £30,000. That's peanuts, especially when you consider that the potential death toll if this thing ever goes will be horrendous. Why the Spanish Goverment has stopped funding, I just don't know. If I was feeling cynical (who, me?) it might be the fact that they don't want to scare off tourists who might be a bit worried if their resort heads downwards at a great rate of knots towards the sea. Nereus Nods, when I started reading your comment, the first thought I had was, "I'm surprised the US Govt doesn't contribute considering the possible disasterous effects this could have". You're quite right too, £30,000 is a very small amount to ask for govt funding, all things considered. Perhaps an educational institution (university) would fund it.. I'm sure there are plenty of geological departments who would love to research this. Heck, I know I would if I was a geologist and had the means to do so. It amazes me so many govts are ignorant to the fact that keeping an eye on situations such as this is vital to minimize damage (and hence costs) down the line. Just because it may not be an immediate threat that could affect their term in power is probably the reason why, sadly. linda Will this tidal wave take out new york state or just new york city?? Nereus Only the coastal areas are at risk to the best of my knowledge (which means Manhattan), and that is not a 100% certainty. It may be a major disaster, it may be major flooding and water damage but little else, it may only mean minor flooding to low-lying areas. I was living in Auckland (New Zealand) years ago when a major tidal wave was supposed to hit, but it never eventuated to much more than a small swell in the harbour. The models so far predict substantioal damage to the eastern seaboard and low-lying areas, but that's about all they can say at this stage. The good thing is we will have a reasonable warning period. Peter Hamilton Can anyone tell me which (international) agency/ies is/would be responsible for co-ordinating a disaster caused by the collapse/tsunami of Cumbre Vieja Marc Good question, but I have no idea what the answer is. If the Cumbre Vieja ever did shed that slab of rock all in one go, then a substantial part of the East Coast of America would get wiped out, with substantial damage and a casualty list that might get into the millions. If that happens then I think that it would be a question of every aid agency in the world getting involved, hopefully co-ordinated by the US Government (if it survived intact that is) and the local States. Paul Duddy All comments about the Cumbre Vieja eruption appear very passive and negative. The disaster will only be on such a scale if the whole volcano slides down in one go. Nereus The problem is the sheer size; it's a massive slab of rock twice the volume of the Isle of Man, unfortunately not something that can readily be drilled through and broken off in pieces, particularly considering most of it is on a 30° incline. Also a major concern with any proactive action is that those actions may be the very thing that sets this catastrophe off. It's one of those damned if you do, damned if you dont type deals. I agree that at the very least, monitoring the situation more closely is required to allow a reasonable evacuation time for effected areas. Perhaps, after seeing the effects of the recent tsunamis from the Indonesian earthquake that have wiped out possibly 100,000 people or more, authorities will pay a little more attention to this disaster waiting to happen on Cumbre Vieja. The projected tsunami resulting from Cumbre Vieja is many times more intense than those which have just killed tens of thousands around the Indian Ocean a couple of days ago. Nereus Charles Suriel sent me the following message: Check out this pdf document which on page 3 gives diagrams of the projected tidal wave(s) that would hit all around the world, including the Caribbean and the east coast of the US. If you don't have Adobe reader to read .pdf docs, you can download it here for free. Lori Lane OK, so I'm just a kid, but we have to do a school project on this... and I need enough information to write a paper, but what can be done about this volcano in the Canary Islands. Can ANYTHING be done???? Get back to me ASAP. Nereus Get back to you? A 'please' might have helped. The information you can get either from this page or from links provided within this page and the comments. You may also find useful info at the following links: Here's some further info from Benfield Hazard Research: ----- What is the Cumbre Vieja? The Cumbre Vieja is a volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canaries. It is the most active volcano in the archipelago and erupted last in 1949 and 1971. Why is it a threat? During the 1949 eruption the western flank detached itself from the rest of the volcano and dropped 4 m seawards before grinding to a halt. This huge landslide has a volume of up to 500 cubic kilometres. If it collapses into the North Atlantic , it will generate a series of tsunami (giant sea waves) with the potential to devastate the Atlantic rim. When will the collapse happen? We have no idea, but it is almost certain to occur during a future eruption when pressure exerted by new magma and by heated ground water, accompanied by earthquakes caused by the rising magma, will provide optimum conditions for destabilising the landslide. We don't know, however, if collapse will be triggered during the next eruption or five or ten eruptions down the line. Eruptions happen every 20 to 200 years or so, with the last eruption in the extreme south of the island (off the landslide) in 1971. In theory, therefore, the collapse could occur during an eruption later this year or ten eruptions and a couple of thousand years in the future. Will the whole landslide collapse as one? This remains a matter for debate. Evidence from observations of other collapsing volcanoes suggests, however, that it will move largely as a coherent mass. This happened in 1949 and measurements made during the mid-1990s suggest that it is continuing to creep very slowly as a coherent mass. An aborted collapse on the neighbouring island of El Hierro fell 300m as a coherent block before stopping. Will the landslide collapse quickly or slowly? Previous studies and observations suggest that steep-sided volcanoes tend to collapse rapidly. Parts of the surface of the aborted collapse on El Hierro are covered with melted rock, indicating that movement of this landslide was very rapid. The Cumbre Vieja west flank could collapse in just a couple of minutes. How big will the tsunami be? The tsunami have been modelled by Steve Ward of the University of California, Santa Cruz and Simon Day of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre (currently at Santa Cruz). In the worst case scenario (for a 500 cubic km collapse), this envisages an initial bulge of water 900 m high. This subsides to form waves in excess of 100 m in height that strike neighbouring islands. After an hour waves 50 - 100m high hit the NW African coast, while Spain and the UK experience waves 7 - 10m high two to five hours after collapse. After nine hours, the Florida coastline can expect to face around a dozen waves between 20 and 25m high. How realistic is the tsunami model? Although a debate is in progress about the persistence and destructive capacity of landslide-related tsunami waves at remote distances, the Ward & Day model has proved reliable in reproducing the behaviour of tsunami generated by submarine collapses (Storegga , Norway) and other collapsing volcanoes ( Ritter Island , Papua New Guinea ). To read the Cumbre Vieja La Palma paper click here (.pdf file). Is the Cumbre Vieja being monitored? Three seismometers on the island will be able to detect the small swarms of earthquakes that will precede the next eruption. The landslide was monitored for short periods during the mid-1990s, when small movements within the error of the methods used (electronic distance measurement and GPS) were detected. The coherence of the observed displacements, however, mean they can reasonably be accepted as indicating the continued, but very slow, westward movement of the landslide. Since 1997, the landslide has been completely unmonitored. To read about the monitoring programme during the mid 1990s click here (.pdf file). samantha kennedy THIS IS BALONEY! Nereus Is that so? Despite all the research by qualified professionals, some of which is linked from this page, everyone should instead believe you, despite the complete lack of reasoning, explanation, proof or credentials? Reality check. If you have an opinion then that's fine either way, but at least back it up with some data.. otherwise your statement is ..baloney! :) sumone hello Nereus link: mega-tsunami Theresa I found this information out through our church. Thank You for keeping us non "bolognic" believers updated. Truly Theresa Peter Thanks for an interesting dialog. I found your site while following up on an interview with Bill McGuire in my brother's March 2005 issue of the German-language magazine "Focus." (McGuire is director of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre mentioned above by Marc.) I don't read German, so I searched for English-language web pages about Cumbre Vieja. My search on this fascinating subject triggered some thoughts and a bit of a rant ... According to the October 2000 BBC show in your 6-5-05 "mega-tsunami" link, the research on landslide-triggered tsunami goes back several decades, but due to its "sensation value" (and the vested interests of insurers and disaster protection marketers), it still gets press coverage - and blog entries like this! The Cumbre Vieja landslide-tsunami model (a computer simulation) that created the recent sensation is described in a (1999?) scientific paper (La_Palma_grl.pdf ) in which researchers Day and Ward also give their assumptions and suggest follow-up research that might confirm their conclusions. This is what makes it science: A hypothesis based on stated assumptions, with conclusions that can be checked by further research. However, the TV programs and magazine articles (and a lot of the web dialog) I found focuses only on the scary conclusions. Very few mention (a) that the scientists' disastrous Atlantic coast tsunami estimates were based on "worst-case" (i.e. biggest bang) assumptions; or (b) that evidence for any such tsunamis in the past is spotty, disputed by other scientists and needs to be filled in by much more geology research; or (c) that as in most computer modeling, the predictions are based on a hypothetical event (in this case the landslide) with simplified mechanics represented by math formulas that may or may not match the reality under the ground on La Palma. Theories about things that happen over "geologic" time scales naturally take a loooong time to "confirm" - much longer than most people will pay attention (sort of like this comment!). Furthermore, risks that involve catastrophic but extremely rare events are profoundly difficult to grasp ... let alone plan for. It would be good if people in general could learn to think and talk more constructively and less hysterically about such things. I'll bet many of the folks who fret about an Atlantic tsunami that might happen once in 1,000 generations, or an asteroid impact that might happen once in 50 million years, have not bothered to plan for their own long term health care or their own 100% certain death. One rational way for the public to deal with stuff like this would be to think through what you would do if you had to move to a "safe place" on 48 hrs notice. If that's not enough time for an orderly retreat from wherever you are ... in the face of whatever disaster risks your location has ... and if that worries you, then you should probably move. Hopefully most people in "vulnerable" areas have done this kind of thinking and are settled with their decisions. Those who haven't thought it through are victims-in-waiting. Those who, whether they've thought it through or not, don't have the option of moving (like most of the world population) just have to be ready to react and hope for relief. The scientists, of course should continue making measurements, looking for clues from the past, refining their simulations and reporting their results. Hopefully an increasingly rational public will be able to separate the sensationalism from the reality and draw their own informed conclusions ... without falling for or contributing to hype & hysteria. Also, it would be good if our media reporters would avoid pressing scientists for levels of certainty that aren't supported by their data or assumptions ... and it would be good if scientists would avoid stating conclusions in ways that imply more certainty than the research actually supports. One shouldn't say that a given disastrous scenario WILL happen, when in fact all they know is that if their assumptions are correct it could happen under such-and-such circumstances that have such-and-such probablity in such-and-such timeframe. We should be satisfied with that kind of answer and move on to think about what, if anything, we should do about it now in view of the uncertainties. We might decide to move or to simply stay tuned for better certainty from further research. Lights This is really interesting and unlike one poster here, I do not believe it is baloney. After checking your blog out I went looking for more info and the overwhelming concneus seems to be: yes, sooner or later this is going to happen and when it does it will be a MAJOR catastrophe.
Gerard The Cumbre Vieja - the olde chestnut rides again. The Cumbre Vieja is not about to collpase into the Atlantic Ocean and it is VERY doubtful if the collapse when it does occur will be anything like that prophesised by Day, McGuire, Ward and anyone else. It is claimed by McGuire to be "The worst case scenario," however there are also reasons why the worst case scenario may never happen and is in the opinion of many geologists - myself included that the "failure of the Cumbre Vieja is an overhyped scenario." I am a geologist / volcanologist and my work involves the volcanoes of the Canary Islands and others too. The island of La Palma in the Canary Island archipelago is the most volcanically active island within historical times. All historic volcanic eruptions have involved the Cumbre Vieja, the last one was in 1971 and occurred at the southern endo of the Cumbre Vieja at the Teneguia vent. The 1949 eruption occurred over about 2.5 km - the Cumbre Vieja is about 25 km long. During that eruption two earthquakes occurred and investigation the following day showed that a series of fissure had appeared on the western side of the ridge. These had a displacement of about 2m vertical and about 1.5m away from the ridge. They could and still can be entered. No fumes, lava, steam etc was being issued from these vents. The length of the vents varies but average about 4m. They occur at irregular intervals over 2.5 km (Bonelli, 1950). No motion is known to have occurred in respect of these fissure since 1949, i.e., they remain in situ as they were after the earthquakes. To claim as some workers do that the flank is creeping at about 1mm a year is wrong. The maths don't add up. 2m in 1 year (1949) is BIG!. 2m in 10 years (1949-1959) is smaller, 2m in 50 years (1949-1999) is 40 mm per year and by 2006 this has dropped to 2m in 57 years or 35mm per year. Surveys using DGPS, EDM and other methods confirm that the flank is static. within the constraints of distance divided by time. The hypothesis that the flank became unstable during the 1949 eruption is based around the earthquakes (Day etc). However there are grounds to suggest otherwise. First the flank was only affected by volcanic activity over about 2.5 km. The feeder dykes may be longer, but this does not automatically indicate failure will occur along the extra length. So what might happen? A block 2.5km long is still a fair sized piece of land. Taking this as the scenario a block 2.5km fails during some future eruption and moves downwards and laterally as a result. How far will it move?, and will it go all the way down? The answer to the first part is unknown just as the answer to the second part is also unknown. However, all is not doom and gloom. On the adjacent island of El Hierro the San Andres fault which is also interpreted as a flank failure (failed) has stalled. It moved rapidly over about 300m and then stalled again. Thus it is possible that the 2.5 km sector of the Cumbre Vieja will undergo similar stop go movements. Even if it did fail in one massive gravitational landlside it will not creat a so called "mega-tsunami." It will create a rather big tsunami which will dissipate in size as it radiates outwards. As it does so it will retain the energy but this too will dissipate as the waves radiate outwards. Borrowing a formula from radio antenna design shows that the inverse square root rule will apply. This states that if the energy at a point X is known then at 2X the energy will be half that at X. So by measuring the energy at say two different locations it will be possible to calculate how much energy was transferred into the ocean and by extrapolating it will be possible to calculate how much energy will be present at different locations ahead of the tsunami wave. Thus the waves that will hit the eastern seaboard of North America will have the potential to cause serious damage to the infrastructure, but they won't be inundating upto 25 to 30 km inland. In the meantime I'm off to have a picnic at the summit of the Cumbre Vieja. So why all the hype? Easy it comes down to £oot whether in £sterling or $v various countries, it all comes down to money. Lock stock and laboratories, FULL STOP. Consider this. "I" discover that I am on the edge of making a breakthrough into a cure for a form of cancer. Great everyone says, but says "I" "I" need money. Urmmmmmm says the man or man of the opposite gender, with the money bags stuck under his / his of the opposite gender, desk. Will £10,000 or $10,000 be alright, It's all I can manage. Next! I have found a way to prove that global warming will ......." How many millions do you need? It's called romancing the subject. The more you talk about it the more people believe that the big bad awful thing is literally just around the corner. The Cumbre Vieja will still be there in 1,000 years much as it is today, BUT look around and see there is an island not too far away where the edifice is in amore advanced state of failure and it attracts NO publicity or money. Nereus Gerard thanks for the comprehensive comment. Volcanologist I write as a professional geologist and my field is in volcanology. I am involved in monitoring the Cumbre Vieja on the island of La Palma. The following facts are pertinent: 1. There were 2 - two earthquakes associated with the 1949 eruption. Here is some more food for thought: The Cumbre Vieja is approximately 25 km long and attains a maximum height of just under 2,000. The 1949 eruption extended over about 2.5 km or about 10% of the length of the Cumbre Vieja. The fissures do not in fact herald the onset of failure - but more ominously the completion of the failure plane, which is listric - spoon-bowl shaped. earthquakes CANNOT occur in solid material, therefore the two earthquakes occurred on a failure plane that pre-dates the eruption. As for claims that the eruption that will cause the failure of the Cumbre Vieja will occur sometime within a hundred years since 1949!! There is NO SCIENTIFIC PROOF for such a claim. There was an eruption at the southern end of the Cumbre Vieja in 1971. The complete list of historical eruptions on La Palma is: 1971, 1949, 1712, 1677, 1646, 1585 or 6 eruptions in 386 years gives an average period of 64.33 years between eruptions. You can play with the figures if you want to. However, volcanoes do not erupt to a timetable, they don't care or know about statistics. So to say that a calamitous eruption will occur in the year 2049 or thereabouts has no scientific basis. During the period when the Cumbre Vieja wasn't pooping off, volcanic activity occurred on Tenerife in 1704, 1705, 1706., on Lanzarote 1730 to 1736, El Hierro 1793, Tenerife 1798, Lanzarote in 1824, Tenerife in 1909. Between 1712 and 1949 NO ERUPTIONS occurred on La Palma - yet 7 sets of eruptive activity occurred elsewhere within the archipelago between 1712 and 1949. From 1585 to present - 2006 is a perid of 421 years and in that period 14 eruptions have occurred within the archipelago at an average period of 30.1 years. The only thing this fact proves is that volcanoes don't care about statistics etc. The Cumbre Vieja will at some as yet unknown date, undergo failure of its edifice. whether this will be the whole 25 km length or smaller sections is anyones guess. It is not to say that we can be complacent about it - we can't. However, there is absolutely nothing that can be done to prevent it happening regardless of the scale involved. If you want to discuss this further please do get in contact. I can be contacted easier via my E-mail: geologist@volcanoes4u.com Phil Daysh Hi all, Just in case that some of you haven't seen this, it's a BBC series called horizon - trusted by us brits for the "it's not a question of if, but when" scenario of doom and gloom. The Cumbre Vieja is showcased in this episode, and although not the best quality, its watchable. You will need to use a bit torrent client to download this. http://www.btmon.com/Other/Unsorted/BBC_Horizon_-_Mega_Tsunami.torrent.html
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Matt
October 9, 2003 7:42 PM [link]
O-K, So if I go ahead and believe on face value that the research is correct and the rocky ledge will do what is claimed, then why wouldn't it be possible to just -slowly- and very carefully cause it to break apart, little by little, over time -- so as to prevent the possibility of such a disastrous result of a possible future eruption?