Tuesday 23 September, 2003 at 2:06PM (Nereus)  ::  permalink  ::  comments (31)

Something I picked up via the surf.co.nz forums.. I'll quote most of this word for word as posted at rense.com ..pretty daunting thing to have hanging over your head. Better get me a big gun (surfboard). Here's the story:

A wave higher than Nelson's Column and traveling faster than a jet aircraft will devastate the eastern seaboard of America and inundate much of southern Britain, say scientists who have analyzed the effects of a future volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands.

A massive slab of rock twice the volume of the Isle of Man would break away from the island of La Palma and smash into the Atlantic Ocean to cause a tsunami - a monster wave - bigger than any recorded, the scientists warned yesterday.

Most of the wave's energy, equivalent to the combined output of America's power stations for six months, would travel westwards to the American coast but enough would be flicked north towards the English Channel to cause catastrophic coastal damage.

A computer model has been designed to show the way the tsunami will build after the volcano, called Cumbre Vieja, erupts on La Palma, at the western end of the Spanish island chain. It describes the almost unimaginable scale of an event that the scientists say could happen at any time within the foreseeable future.

"We're looking at an event that could be decades or a century away - but there will be a degree of warning beforehand," said Simon Day, of the Benfield Greg Hazard Research Center at University College London.

Most of the rocky western flank of Cumbre Vieja is unstable enough to be dislodged in the next big eruption of the volcano, which is active enough to explode at least once or twice a century. Its last big event was in 1949.

Such a landslide from a future eruption could travel up to 60 kilometers (37 miles) from La Palma's coast, causing the formation and then collapse of a dome of water 900 meters (3,000ft) high and tens of kilometers wide. The bow of this collapsing dome of water would become a giant wave, but also, as the landslide continued to move underwater, a series of crests and troughs would soon generate the "wave train" of the tsunami.

With the leading wave in front and crests pushing it on behind, it would sustain the power for the nine-hour journey to the American east coast.

Tsunami means harbour wave in Japanese and, though the occurrence has nothing to do with the tides, it is often called a tidal wave in English. Throughout history they have caused widespread devastation, with Britain last being affected by one in 1755 when an earthquake in Lisbon caused an unusually large wave to hit southern ports.

The computer model, compiled in collaboration with Steven Ward of the University of California, Santa Cruz, predicts that the tsunami will have a height of 100 metres (330ft) from crest to trough when it crashes into the shores of nearby north-west Africa. By the time it reached its final destination - the east coast of Florida and the Caribbean islands - the tsunami would still be up to 50 metres high.

Low-lying land in Florida would be vulnerable to a sea wave that would inundate the mainland for several kilometres inland. Everything in its path would be flattened, the computer model predicted.

Even though the wave would be much smaller when it reached Britain, it would still breach sea defenses because it would be larger than the biggest storm waves for which they were designed, Dr Day said. "For low-lying land along the south coast it could penetrate up to a mile," he said.

Although there is little doubt that the landslide on La Palma will happen after a volcanic eruption, the difficulty is knowing exactly when it will occur. "Eruptions of Cumbre Vieja occur at intervals of decades to a century or so and there may be a number of eruptions before its collapse," Dr Day said. "Although the year-to-year probability of a collapse is therefore low, the resulting tsunami would be a major disaster with indirect effects around the world."

The scientists are calling for better warning instruments to be placed on La Palma so that an impending eruption can be detected quickly enough to alert other areas that might be affected by a tsunami.

"Cumbre Vieja needs to be monitored closely for any signs of impending volcanic activity and for the deformation that would precede collapse. The collapse will occur during some future eruption after days or weeks of precursory deformation and earthquakes," Dr Day predicted.

"An effective earthquake monitoring system could provide advanced warning of a likely collapse and allow early emergency management organizations a valuable window of time in which to plan and respond," he said.

..update January 2008..

Some of the documents referenced in the comments section I have made a backup of, as I notice a few of the links are dead already. Here are those backups:

• La_Palma_grl.pdf (750kb)
  source: UCSC Earth & Planetary Sciences [link] (Cumbre Vieja La Palma tsunami model).
• WardandDay.pdf (750kb)
  source: Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre [link] (is actually same document as above).
• gdm_la_palma.pdf (3.6MB)
  source: Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre [link] (monitoring program during the mid 1990s).
• CumbreViejaQA.pdf (45kb)
  source: Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre [link] (tsunami threat Q&A).

Thank you to Anna McGuire (benfieldhrc.org) for making the docs available after the links had gone dead.

learning a second language

      Monday 22 September, 2003 at 5:25PM (Nereus)  ::  permalink  ::  comments (2)

The other Weasel said to me the other day, "Hurry up and learn how to speak Russian so you understand what I'm saying all the time already!" (the other Weasel of course being bi-lingual). I've thought about it a bit more, and had I been quick enough at the time I could've responded with, "Well, you work with heaps of Chinese people all day, how come you don't know how to speak Chinese already?".

Actually I am picking up a malenky bit of Russian as you can viddy. heh. This topic got me thinking though. In New Zealand Te Reo Maori is now part of the school curriculum (speaking Maori, the native language of NZ). Outside of NZ, Maori language is non-existant, so although increased awareness within NZ is culturally a good thing, it is relatively useless in the big scheme of things. This is because as the world moves more and more towards a global economy, lesser known languages will become less useful in everyday life.

I wonder if eventually the Tower of Babel story will be reversed and there will be one common global language.. which brings me to a post I saw on a forum recently (thanks Orion):

EURO ENGLISH : EUROPEAN DIRECTIVE

The European Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the EU rather than German, which was the other possibility strongly lobbied by the German Government.

As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a five year plan that would be known as Euro English.

In the first year, "S" will replace the soft "C" . Sertainly, this will make sivil servants jump with joy. The hard "C" will be dropped in favour of the letter "K". This should klear up konfusion and musik keyboards kan have one less letter.

There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the tiresome "PH" will be replaced with the "F". This will make words like "fotograf" 20% shorter.

In the third year publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible. Governments will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling. Also al wi agre that the horible mes of the silent "E" in the language is disgrasful, and should be don away with.

By the fourth yer, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing 'TH" with "Z" and "W" with "V". During ze fifz yar, ze unesesary "O" kan be dropd from vords kontaning "OU" and similar changes vud of kors be aplid to ozer kombinations of leters.

After zis fifz yer ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no mor trubls or difikultis and evriven vil find it ezi tu understand ech ozer.

ZE DREM VIL FINALI KUM TRU!!

storm of the century? ..or just a storm in a teacup

      Wednesday 17 September, 2003 at 6:10PM (Nereus)  ::  permalink  ::  comments (8)

Everybody is watching the track of Hurricane Isabel at the moment. Fortunately it's dropped from a massive category 5 hurricane (that's as big as it gets) down to a category 2 at present, although the wind speeds have increased a little over the last 12 hours. Right now it's at the very top end of category 2 with just under 110mph wind speeds. Regardless of the recent weakening, it's still expected to be dangerous when it hits the barrier islands on Thursday morning (EST) with a storm surge of up to 11 feet. I've been frequently switching on the weather channel for updates as nearly 250,000 people have been advised to evacuate in North Carolina and Virginia coastal areas - the weather guys there have been predicting swells of up to 25feet! Apparently it is expected to pick up speed as it approaches the coast. I'm wondering if there will be much swell reaching up to NYC in the weekend or early next week as a result.

In other news, I still had not heard anything back re my CUNY application (NY Universities) after nearly 2 months, so I rang them earlier today and was advised that I needed to pay them some more money... apparently they originally sent me an application form with a $40 fee requested, but have since increased it to $50, so I have to send them another $10. Good one. I wonder if they would've even bothered to tell me had I not called. Probably not. The guy I spoke to said not to panic as acceptances don't start until November anyway.. which is different info from what I had been told previously. As this is the first of a five step application process, at this rate I should be able to start university around March 2005 *rolls eyes*. I just hope the other application steps don't take as long (you can't submit one application until the previous one has been approved apparently). I guess being a foreign-educated adult is the worse possible thing to be when it comes to getting enrolled here. Amazing really - this all gets done in about one week in New Zealand.

..update at Thursday 18th 7:01am..

From weather.com: Winds at the buoy well east of Charleston, SC reached near hurricane force before midnight, while wave heights ranged near 30 feet. That buoy quit reporting soon after that..

..update at Thursday 18th 2:30pm..

The hurricane made landfall a while ago and picked up speed (movement north speed, not windspeed) which is actually a good thing as it means there won't be as much rain accumulation and hence less flooding. I watched a little while ago as huge waves came in at Virginia Beach. The pier there had waves coming over the top of it (which means 30 foot easy) and as the weather.com guys were filming it, a big wave took out the end of the pier.. radical.

911 anniversary

      Thursday 11 September, 2003 at 11:42AM (Nereus)  ::  permalink  ::  comments (6)

It's been two years since the World Trade Towers were attacked. Last night I noticed that the twin beams of light pointing straight up into the sky were back on again at the WTC site. Please spare a moment to reflect for the innocent thousands who perished that day.

There is a commemorative ceremony being held at the WTC site as I write which is also being aired on several television channels simultaneously. As was done last year, the names of all the victims of the attack are being read out to mark the anniversary of their passing.

Wow.. they just read the last name and two bugle players have started playing 'the last taps' ..pretty moving stuff. Interesting.. there's some uniformed British Bobbys (policemen) with a full size Union Jack (UK National flag) grouped with a bunch of NYPD who are bearing the US flag all together. Nice show of unity.

On a more sour note, the Arabic satellite channel Al-Jazeera aired video and audio tapes of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy yesterday. The footage is the first video image of bin Laden in nearly two years. In the audiotape, a voice said to be that of bin Laden praises the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States two years ago for causing ''great damage to the enemy'' and mentions five of the hijackers by name. Another voice on the tape, attributed to bin Laden top aide Ayman al-Zawahri, calls on Iraqi guerrillas to ''bury'' American troops in Iraq.

The videotape shows bin Laden and al-Zawahri, dressed in Afghan clothing, walking up and down a rocky hill dotted with green plants. In one shot, bin Laden is assisted by a walking stick. The backdrop in the video apparently resembles the border regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, where U.S. officials believe bin Laden is hiding out. There was nothing in the video itself to indicate when it was made and Al-Jazeera did not say how or when it obtained the tape.

In the audiotape attributed to al-Zawahri, the speaker refers to U.S. troops in Iraq - an indication that it was made after American troops entered Iraq last March.

''We salute the mujahedeen brothers in Iraq and press on their hands and ask Allah to bless their sacrifices and valor in fighting the Crusaders,'' the speaker says. ''We tell you that Allah is with you and the (Islamic) nation supports you. Depend on Allah. Devour the Americans just like the lions devour their prey. Bury them in the Iraqi graveyard.'

The voice attributed to al-Zawahri also referred to the Sept. 11 anniversary;

''On the second anniversary of the raids on New York and Washington we challenge America and its Crusade, which is teetering from its wounds in Afghanistan and Iraq,'' the speaker says. ''We tell them that we do not seek to kill, but we will chop off the hand which seeks to inflict harm on us, God willing.''

'We do not seek to kill?' Yeah, right. In the audiotape, translated from the Arabic by The Associated Press, the voice said to be al-Zawahri's threatened more attacks on Americans.

''What you saw until now are only the first skirmishes,'' the voice says. ''The true epic has not begun.''

Neither bin Laden nor his aide spoke on the video, which to me indicates that the video may have been shot a long time ago and the audiotape added more recently to give the appearance bin Laden is still alive.

Why do people insist on killing each other? Such a waste.

add on: Just mentioned on the news: Both this year and last year at the WTC site at the very moment the first plane hit, there has been a noticeable gust of wind down in the pit itself on what has otherwise been a relatively calm day. *stare*

the end of the world as we know it

      Thursday 4 September, 2003 at 11:47PM (Nereus)  ::  permalink  ::  comments (10)

The human race may have only 10 years 7 months and 17 days left. As reported on CNN, a giant asteroid is heading for Earth and could hit in 2014, U.S. astronomers have warned British space monitors. Asteroid '2003 QQ47' will be closely monitored over the next two months. Its potential strike date is March 21, 2014, but astronomers say that any risk of impact is likely to decrease as further data is gathered. On impact, it could have the effect of 20 million Hiroshima atomic bombs, a spokesman for the British government's Near Earth Object Information Center told BBC radio. Don't quit your jobs just yet though - the chances of a catastrophic collision are just one in 909,000 at present.

freedom of speech?

      Wednesday 3 September, 2003 at 11:33PM (Nereus)  ::  permalink  ::  comments (1)

Oh real nice. This story was sourced from DemocracyNow.org. It's just another sign of how things are changing in the US, and shows how much regard the powers that be have for the ideal of freedom of speech that they allegedly uphold.

A 20 year-old webmaster {Sherman Austin} of a California-based website called 'raisethefist.com' is to begin a year-long prison term today. He was charged with 'distribution of information relating to explosives, destructive devices and weapons of mass destruction' after someone posted molotov cocktail and drano bomb-making information on his political site. He was charged under a 1997 law that made it illegal to publish such instructions with the intent that readers commit 'a federal crime of violence.' Sherman Austin is the first person charged under this law, which has been criticized by First Amendment scholars. Once he is released he is banned from associating with anyone who wants to change U.S. government "in any way", be that environmental, social justice, political, economic, etc.

Banned from associating with anyone who wants to change U.S. government in any way? I guess that means he can't talk to politicians. In fact he can't talk to about 45% of the US population if they take that literally. How stupid. All you people who spent part of your youth making chlorine or copper pipe bombs and blowing up letterboxes better not write about it - it could land you in prison, because obviously you're a threat to national security.

The major injustice of this is that Sherman Austin did not even author the material in question - he had a website and he offered free space to basically anyone who asked for it. If an activist asked for free space, Sherman would grant them an account, which would allow them to upload whatever they wanted, and that's what the person who authored the material in question did - got some free space on Sherman's server and uploaded the material in question. Sherman provided a link to the user account on his front page. Austin says, “All I had on my website was a link to another website that wasn't associated with my website. On that other website, there was information about protests and things like security culture, and a small portion of the website that was stuff about explosives.”

Ok, considering he was jailed using such a shallow premise, why have the webhosts who initially provided him the webspace not been sent to jail? Why have all the ISPs who allowed their customers access to this information not been sent to jail? Why has the person who actually wrote the material not been sent to jail? It seems pretty clear this guy is being victimized by the US government, and most likely the real reason is that it was an opportunity to remove a website that was apparently attracting a significant amount of traffic - a website that perhaps provided visitors an insight into alternative forms of social organization that certain people in the government did not like. Sure the site was an anarchist site, but hell, why aren't all these anti-establishment rappers who promote violence against the police etc not thrown in jail too? Note too that most people consider anarchism as social disorder, but political anarchism basically means self rule, not disorder. Big difference.

It's abuse of power in the worst possible way, and goes against everything this country is supposed to stand for. In view of the Constitution, it's blatant disregard of the right to freedom of speech and expression, yet nobody is saying shit ..why? By taking this course of action, the government put fear into the online community, particularly those who disagree with them, and nobody is saying a thing because they don't want to wind up being accused of being a terrorist and thrown in jail too. Guess what US Govt? Defense of freedom is exactly the reason the US is at war right now, you hypocrites.

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